CDC Math: 45% of the USA Already Had COVID-19
In July, the CDC posted an update of the COVID—19 burden on the U.S. population from the start of the outbreak through the end of May 2021. The estimate was that only 1 out of every 4.2 cases was reported and that 120 million people have had Coronavirus at that time; which would be 36% of the population.
As of today, 38 million case were already reported in the US. Using the above CDC math, this means a case count of 159 million which would be 48% of the US population if each case was in a new person, but the CDC update suggests that some cases are reinfections so my guess is we should remove some points and place the case count at 45% of the population until the CDC updates its count.
It is possible that when the CDC will update its estimate, they will lower the amount of unreported cases relative to reported ones since testing this year is much stronger than in the early months of the outbreak. But then again, its official estimate of there being 4.2 cases for every reported case includes many months of strong testing so adding a few more months should not change the math by much except if the CDC retroactively adjusts its method.
When 45% of a population has been infected with a virus over an 18 month span, it either means that some of the measures implemented to slow the spread don’t work so well as advertised, or it means that less people than what it may appear follow those rules. Whichever of the two it is, the latest number should end the finger pointing at those who suffer from COVID-19.
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