What the Midterms Say about Trump and Republicans in Washington

Much of the post-midterm elections commentary leaves people with the impression that the GOP was doing great until Donald J. Trump messed it up for them by arriving seven years ago.

However, post-Ronald Reagan and pre-Trump, the Republican Party lost the popular vote in five of the six presidential elections and lost the elections outright four of those six times. The losses happened with polished hands like George H. W. Bush, Bob Dole, John McCain, and Mitt Romney. The two presidential Republican wins included one decided by less than 600 votes in Florida and the other decided by Ohio; both by a man who left the White House with a 25% approval rating and his party decimated in the House and the Senate. The mess was so steep that he - George W. Bush - was persona non grata at his own party's convention a few years later.

On the other hand, Donald J. Trump won the White House once and came within 43,000 votes spread out in three states to win it again. Mr. Trump, after his two midterms (counting 2022 as "his"), left the GOP with more seats in the House and the Senate than most recent GOP nominees did and more seats than what Obama and Biden left Democrats with after their own midterms of 2010 and 2014. Had there been less agitation against Trump and "his" candidates by anti-Trump Republicans, the outcomes would have been better, including Kari Lake's 0.6% loss in Arizona which is a fraction of the 2.4% Senate loss by the Establishment's Martha McSally in 2020 when Trump fell short by only 0.3 percentage points in the state. Similarly, the GOP loss this year in the Nevada Senate race of 0.9% is much smaller than the previous two GOP Senate losses in the state by non-Trump Republicans. Trump lost Nevada twice by much smaller margins (2.4 points) than did John McCain (12.7) and Mitt Romney (6.7 points). Trump and his candidates had these results despite inner-party sabotage that can happen to any future Republican presidential nominee. Besides, those who feel it is a duty to oppose Trump should have at it, but for them to then say “see, Trump lost," is laughable.

Finally, blaming Trump for all recent election outcomes - including where the GOP has now in the House the same number of seats that Democrats had until now, yet no Democrat “blamed” Biden for that - is a lazy way for Republicans to explain away how they failed to give their base more policy wins to be excited about. Former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, with 241 seats and a Republican Senate and White House, delivered less on mainstream Republican policy than outgoing Speaker Nancy Pelosi, with 222 seats, delivered for Democrats. 222 House Democrats unleashed subpoenas and DOJ referrals on political opponents while the Republican Ryan House used its power to investigate a Republican president.

Mitch McConnell in the Senate signed off on a $1 trillion infrastructure bill for President Joe Biden a few years after refusing to give Trump more than pocket change for a fence at the border. The GOP Senate ran a four-year investigation into Trump regarding - what former V.P. Mike Pence called recently - a hoax, but McConnell rejects any accountability of Biden. The current president got more judicial nominees approved despite the other party holding 50 seats in the Senate than Trump did when Democrats had fewer seats. McConnell laments the "chaos" which is why he and a dozen GOP senators have folded to Biden repeatedly. Yet, Charles Schumer and Ms. Pelosi reveled in opposition to Trump and were rewarded by the voters.

In summary, the GOP with Trump around is doing the same or better than before his time, depending on which metric one looks at. Many people whining about Republican election outcomes are the ones who, self-righteously, caused the narrow losses by undermining Republicans. Third, barking about Trump is a cheap way for Washington Republicans to absolve themselves from any policy or political steps that should have helped them do better.

On Twitter @YossiGestetner