One of the oft-repeated claims in Republican politics regarding the 2022 midterm elections and the 2024 General Election is that if only Republican Primary Voters chose differently, the party would have a better chance in the general. It's true that not every primary winner is the best general election choice. Still, the losers of primaries were certainly not best positioned to have won the general elections in the same cycle, or else they would have first win the primary whose voters make up a large block needed to win the general election.
This is dumb. Primary voters are the extremists in the party, while a lot of President election only voters are those largely plugged out and extreme. Generally the extremist will vote for the moderate, but someone moderate will not vote for the extremists. It has nothing to do with being organized. It's about appealing to the center of the electorate.
I understand your point, but PA's 2022 US Senate race was NOT the example to use. If anything, our primaries illustrate how much candidate choice does matter, and how profoundly they are failing to resonate with the voters.
PA is a closed primary state, so only those registered as Democrats or Republicans can vote in the primary. I’m using the 2022 data from Montgomery County, PA website as my example because I live here.
In 2022, there were 607,301 registered voters in Montgomery County, PA.
Of those voters, 510,386 voters were eligible to vote in the Democrat or Republican primary election. 135,089 did – a paltry 26.5% of those eligible, or 22.2% of the total registered voters.
The results for the 2022 US Senate Primary Elections for Montgomery County, PA were:
2022 TOTAL REGISTERED DEMOCRATS in Montgomery County = 304,890
Total primary voters = 65,984 (21.6% of the total registered Democrats)
Fetterman won the Democrat primary in this county with 34,211 votes, which is 11.2% of those registered to vote in the Democrat Primary. Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
2022 TOTAL REGISTERED REPUBLICANS in Montgomery County = 205,496
Total primary voters = 69,105 (33.6% of the total registered Republicans)
Barnette won the Republican primary in this county with 24,147 votes, which is 11.8% of those registered to vote in the Republican Primary. Again, hardly a ringing endorsement. (FWIW: Oz received 20,646 votes, and McCormick 16,349 votes).
But those numbers are worth considering. In the 2022 US Senate Primary Elections for Montgomery County, PA, LESS THAN 12% of those eligible to vote in either party’s primary election voted for the candidate who won the county primary election.
To my eye, that means the largest block of voters are the 74.5% who are registered as Democrat or Republican but are not voting in their party’s primary elections. Presumably they didn’t vote in the primary because they either did not know or were not enthused by their choices.
Well put. I like!
This is dumb. Primary voters are the extremists in the party, while a lot of President election only voters are those largely plugged out and extreme. Generally the extremist will vote for the moderate, but someone moderate will not vote for the extremists. It has nothing to do with being organized. It's about appealing to the center of the electorate.
I understand your point, but PA's 2022 US Senate race was NOT the example to use. If anything, our primaries illustrate how much candidate choice does matter, and how profoundly they are failing to resonate with the voters.
PA is a closed primary state, so only those registered as Democrats or Republicans can vote in the primary. I’m using the 2022 data from Montgomery County, PA website as my example because I live here.
In 2022, there were 607,301 registered voters in Montgomery County, PA.
Of those voters, 510,386 voters were eligible to vote in the Democrat or Republican primary election. 135,089 did – a paltry 26.5% of those eligible, or 22.2% of the total registered voters.
The results for the 2022 US Senate Primary Elections for Montgomery County, PA were:
2022 TOTAL REGISTERED DEMOCRATS in Montgomery County = 304,890
Total primary voters = 65,984 (21.6% of the total registered Democrats)
Fetterman won the Democrat primary in this county with 34,211 votes, which is 11.2% of those registered to vote in the Democrat Primary. Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
2022 TOTAL REGISTERED REPUBLICANS in Montgomery County = 205,496
Total primary voters = 69,105 (33.6% of the total registered Republicans)
Barnette won the Republican primary in this county with 24,147 votes, which is 11.8% of those registered to vote in the Republican Primary. Again, hardly a ringing endorsement. (FWIW: Oz received 20,646 votes, and McCormick 16,349 votes).
But those numbers are worth considering. In the 2022 US Senate Primary Elections for Montgomery County, PA, LESS THAN 12% of those eligible to vote in either party’s primary election voted for the candidate who won the county primary election.
To my eye, that means the largest block of voters are the 74.5% who are registered as Democrat or Republican but are not voting in their party’s primary elections. Presumably they didn’t vote in the primary because they either did not know or were not enthused by their choices.